Parts of Mexico will endure heavy rain and the risk for mudslides from Tropical Depression Tara into the middle of the week.
Tara is the 19th tropical storm to develop in the East Pacific this season, but is unlikely to reach hurricane strength.
Tara reorganized close to the coast of Mexico, less than 40 miles from Manzanillo, on Tuesday morning, but then weakened into a tropical depression on Tuesday afternoon.
While Tara is expected to remain close to the coast or perhaps move inland during the next 24 to 48 hours, the tropical storm will likely weaken and damaging winds are expected to remain localized to the immediate coastline of Colima and southern Jalisco.
Rainfall will remain the biggest and most widespread threat from Tara across western Mexico through Wednesday.
Rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) will be common, with an AccuWeather StormMax™ of 200 mm (8 inches) across Colima, western Jalisco and southern Nayarit.
This amount of rainfall will be capable of producing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Widespread travel disruptions are also expected.
While damaging winds are expected to remain near the coastline, thunderstorms elsewhere can contain locally damaging winds.
Tara will also produce dangerous seas and surf along the coast from Michoacan to Nararit into the middle of the week.
Tara is expected to continue weakening over the next several days due to its interaction with land and increased wind shear. In fact, Tara may dissipate by late week near or over Jalisco and Nayarit.
While the risks from Tara diminish later this week, a new tropical threat is expected to develop near Mexico.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the northern part of Central America is forecast to move into the East Pacific and become better organized by midweek. This area of concern could become the next named tropical storm in the East Pacific by Thursday or Friday.
Upon reaching tropical storm strength, the name Vicente would be given to the budding tropical cyclone.
A track toward the northwest would take this potential tropical system near the coast of Mexico, bringing the risk for flooding and mudslides to areas from Chiapas to Oaxaca and Guerrero through Friday.
Areas that were impacted by Tara could then have another period of heavy rainfall from Sunday into early next week, depending on the track of this potential tropical system.